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Rise of the supercentenarians: Todays kids could live for 130 years – The South African

Posted: July 5, 2021 at 1:53 am


The number of people who live past the age of 100 has been on the rise for decades, up to nearly half a million people worldwide, due to advances in medical and scientific technology, as well as the worlds growing population.

However, there are far fewer supercentenarians, who live to age 110 and the oldest living person ever, Jeanne Calment of France, was 122 when she died in 1997, four years older than current record holder, 118-year-old Kane Tanaka of Japan.

Extreme longevity will rise slowly by the end of the century, according to researchers from the University of Washington, meaning that they believe its certain Calmets record will be broken.

People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether its going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics, or even how long someone can live, said lead author Michael Pearce, a UW doctoral student in statistics.

With this work, we quantify how likely we believe it is that some individual will reach various extreme ages this century.

Pearces team used Bayesian statistics to calculate their findings, discovering theres 100% chance of a new record holder, a 99% probability someone will live to 124, 68% of their being a living 127 year old, and a 13% chance an individual breaks the 130 barrier by 2100.

However, Adrian Rafferty, who partnered with Pearce on the study, said they believe that medical advances wont mean theres a sudden glut of people reaching such an advanced age, as past 110 years old our mortality rate flattens out.

It doesnt matter how old they are, once they reach 110, they still die at the same rate, Raftery explained. Theyve gotten past all the various things life throws at you, such as disease. They die for reasons that are somewhat independent of what affects younger people. This is a very select group of very robust people.

As a result, a 110-year-old has the same probability of dying within the next year, around 50%, as someone five years older.

The new study, published in the journal Demographic Research, was funded by the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development.

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Rise of the supercentenarians: Todays kids could live for 130 years - The South African

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